1、 Supply and demand pattern: Consumption growth slows down, production and trade volume reach historic highs
Despite the ongoing global energy transition, coal remains an important energy pillar for many countries. Due to the impact of the pandemic in 2020, global coal consumption decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, but continued to rebound in the following four years, reaching a historical high of 8.77 billion tons in 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the peak of global coal consumption may be delayed until 2027, mainly supported by demand from emerging economies in Asia.
Production end: In 2024, global coal production exceeded 9 billion tons for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Production in China, India, and Indonesia all reached new highs. China, as the largest producer, is expected to produce 4.76 billion tons in 2024, accounting for more than half of the world’s total.
Trade side: The international coal trade volume will increase to 1.546 billion tons in 2024, with Asia as the core hub, Indonesia and Australia leading exports, while China, India, Vietnam and other countries have strong import demand. China’s import volume is expected to exceed 520 million tons in 2024, effectively supplementing the demand in coastal areas.
2、 Regional differentiation: Europe and America accelerate exit, Asia leads growth
Decline in the European and American markets: EU coal consumption has dropped from 829 million tons in 2006 to 368 million tons in 2024, the UK has closed all coal-fired power plants, and Germany’s production has fallen below 100 million tons. The coal consumption in the United States has decreased by 60% from its peak in 2008, and by 2024, it will account for less than 8% of the global total.
Rising demand in Asia: India has become the core of global coal consumption growth, with a consumption of over 1.3 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a planned production of 1.577 billion tons by 2030. Vietnam’s import volume has surged, reaching 63 million tons in 2024, making it the fifth largest importer in the world. Southeast Asian countries’ dependence on coal continues to rise due to industrialization and electricity demand.
3、 Price fluctuations: geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand rebalancing
Thermal coal: The price of European ARA ports has fallen from a peak of $407.5/ton in 2022 to $112.6/ton at the beginning of 2025, returning to the supply and demand fundamentals. The price trend of Port Richard in South Africa and Port Newcastle in Australia is similar, fluctuating and stabilizing in the range of 100-150 US dollars.
Coking coal: Due to the demand of the steel industry, price fluctuations are more severe. The peak mining price in Australia has dropped from $670/ton in 2022 to $200/ton in 2025, but still remains higher than pre pandemic levels. Goldman Sachs predicts that coal prices may face downward pressure in 2025, but the speed of clean energy substitution and geopolitical risks remain key variables.
4、 Industry integration and technological transformation
Active corporate mergers and acquisitions: Global mining giants are accelerating their layout, such as Glencore’s acquisition of the Serehon coal mine in Colombia and coking coal assets in Canada, and Bodi Energy’s acquisition of Australian metallurgical coal mines, increasing industry concentration to cope with cost pressures.
Intelligence and Cleanliness: China’s intelligent coal mining capacity accounts for over 50%, and AI and big data technologies improve mining efficiency. Coal chemical industry (such as coal to oil and gas) has become a transformation direction, and projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are driving demand growth in non electricity sectors. Europe and America are forced to withdraw through policies, such as Germany closing hard coal mines and reducing lignite production.
5、 Challenges and Future Trends
Environmental pressure and energy transition: By 2024, the proportion of global coal-fired power generation will drop to 35%, a historic low, but carbon emissions intensity will still be the highest among fossil fuels. The IEA calls for Asia to accelerate its energy transition, with policies balancing energy security and emission reduction targets.
Market fragility: Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather events (such as 2024 or the hottest year) exacerbate supply and demand uncertainty. China has stabilized prices and ensured supply through the long-term agreement system for electricity and coal, but the contract fulfillment rate is less than 50%, and supervision needs to be strengthened.
Emerging demand and structural adjustment: Demand differentiation between coal chemical and steel industries, with the former experiencing strong growth and the latter constrained by overcapacity. The industrialization process in India and Southeast Asia will support coal consumption, while developed countries’ dependence continues to shrink.
The global coal industry is showing an “east-west differentiation” pattern: Europe and America are accelerating their exit, Asia is leading growth, and trade flows are reshaping. In the short term, emerging economies’ demand and geopolitical risks support the market, but in the long term, it faces pressure from clean energy substitution and environmental policies. The industry needs to address challenges through technological upgrades (intelligence, cleanliness) and strategic integration, seeking a balance between energy security and sustainable development. As the largest producer and consumer country, China’s policy orientation (such as the Energy Law promoting long-term agreements) will profoundly influence the global market trend.
